2021 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling Seminar Program Guide

The program guide is a list of unique sessions that will be offered at the Seminar. Review session and speaker information for the event as well as any presentation materials that have been submitted. Please check back periodically for any updates as we lead up to the event.

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Monday, March 15
8:00am EDT WS1: Basic Ratemaking Kevin Hughes, ISO/Verisk; Nickolas Alvarado, Milliman, Inc. show more Description This workshop will explain the fundamental insurance equation: the foundation of the ratemaking process. This session will include techniques for adjusting historical data to estimate its various components, premiums, losses, expenses, and profit, in the relevant pricing time period. The session will conclude by briefly exploring other considerations company management should make, along with the cost-based rate indication derived from the fundamental insurance equation, to determine what rates to charge in practice. This session will also examine the various methods that actuaries use to allocate overall average rates to various subdivisions of a line of business, including territories, classifications, and tiers. Some of the methods discussed will consist of univariate, multivariate, and generalized linear modeling techniques. Time Monday, Mar 15 8:00AM - 12:00PM EDT Speakers Kevin Hughes ISO/Verisk Nickolas Alvarado Milliman, Inc. WS3: Introduction to Machine Learning with Applications Gary Wang, Willis Towers Watson; Donald Hendriks, CARFAX Banking & Insurance Group; Michael Chen, Willis Towers Watson; Gaetan Veilleux, Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc. show more Description In this workshop, participants will learn the basics of machine learning with a focus on its application to property-casualty insurance. We will survey a variety of the more common machine learning techniques. Then we will use real-world data to construct a classification and a regression model using some of those techniques, highlighting potential pitfalls and best practices as we go. Finally, we will discuss how to implement the results of the model, including a case study of the use of a Gradient Boosting Model to generate a vehicle symbol plan. Time Monday, Mar 15 8:00AM - 12:00PM EDT Speakers Gary Wang Willis Towers Watson Donald Hendriks CARFAX Banking & Insurance Group Michael Chen Willis Towers Watson Gaetan Veilleux Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc.
1:00pm EDT WS4: Advanced Ratemaking Eric Krafcheck, Milliman; Stephen Fiete; Robert Moss, NCCI Holdings, Inc; Carolyn Wise, NCCI Holdings, Inc; Taralyn Slusarski, Deloitte Consulting, LLP; Jennifer Beers, Ironshore Insurance show more Description Sometimes basic actuarial ratemaking techniques are insufficient for the job at hand. Data availability, the underlying nature of the exposure, or the presence of other constraints can necessitate the use of additional or more advanced methodologies. This workshop will cover advanced ratemaking topics such as pricing for new products, competitive analysis, large account pricing, legislative costing, and incorporating the net cost of reinsurance. Time Monday, Mar 15 1:00PM - 5:00PM EDT Speakers Eric Krafcheck Milliman Stephen Fiete Robert Moss NCCI Holdings, Inc Carolyn Wise NCCI Holdings, Inc Taralyn Slusarski Deloitte Consulting, LLP Jennifer Beers Ironshore Insurance WS5: Data Visualization and Communication James Weiss, Crum & Forster; Garrett Bradford, Milliman, Inc. show more Description This workshop will use data visualization to tell the story of a predictive model to its stakeholders. Data visualization principles and best practices will be reviewed and discussed. An interactive R exercise will then be conducted that develops a predictive model from an open dataset and communicates critical information to various stakeholders along the way by means of intentional and inventive visuals. Time Monday, Mar 15 1:00PM - 5:00PM EDT Speakers James Weiss Crum & Forster Garrett Bradford Milliman, Inc.
Tuesday, March 16
9:30am EDT RT1: Roundtable - COVID-19 Eric Krafcheck, Milliman show more Description CE-Eligible interactive discussion on topic area Time Tuesday, Mar 16 9:30AM - 10:20AM EDT Speakers Eric Krafcheck Milliman RT2: Roundtable - Professionalism and Modeling George Levine, KPMG, LLP show more Description 2020 introduced potentially new modes of working for actuaries and created challenging new analyses that may have felt less than familiar. ASOP No. 56 (Modeling) became effective in October, revisions to ASOP No. 38 (Catastrophe Modeling) came in the form of another exposure draft, and the Setting Assumptions exposure draft also remains open for comments. In this CE-eligible facilitated roundtable, actuaries can drop by and discuss with their peers considerations as relates to the upcoming changes, the impacts of COVID-19 on analysis, or any other general professionalism reasonable to a lively interactive dialog. Time Tuesday, Mar 16 9:30AM - 10:20AM EDT Speakers George Levine KPMG, LLP
10:30am EDT RM1: A Model Based Approach to Personal Auto Geographic Risk Classification Jonathan Fesenmeyer, Allstate Insurance Company; Matthew Berry, Allstate Insurance Company show more Description Geographic (territory) risk classification analyses have some unique challenges – credibility limitations, strong correlations, increased external scrutiny, and the acronym soup of geospatial terms. In this session we’re going to discuss an approach that combines geospatial analysis with predictive modeling that addresses some of the unique challenges, along with observations that have proved helpful for risk classification analyses in general. Time Tuesday, Mar 16 10:30AM - 11:45AM EDT Speakers Jonathan Fesenmeyer Allstate Insurance Company Matthew Berry Allstate Insurance Company RP1: Disparate Impact - The Impact of the Social Justice Movement on Insurance Rating Roosevelt Mosley, Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc.; Birny Birnbaum, Center for Economic Justice show more Description Insurance rates in most jurisdictions are mandated to not be unfairly discriminatory. Historically, this has meant that protected risk characteristics were not used in rating. However, the recent focus on social justice has resulted in renewed calls from regulators and legislators to examine this issue. This session will focus on various definitions of disparate impact, the impact these definitions could have on rating plans, and what role the actuarial profession should play in resolving this issue. Time Tuesday, Mar 16 10:30AM - 11:45AM EDT Speakers Roosevelt Mosley Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc. Birny Birnbaum Center for Economic Justice MD1: Dive in! The NC Private Flood Program Rebecca Williams, North Carolina Rate Bureau; David Evans, Milliman, Inc. show more Description In 2020, the North Carolina Department of Insurance approved a private flood program for use by the member companies of the North Carolina Rate Bureau. This session will review this new North Carolina flood program, how it was developed, and what makes it unique to other flood insurance programs across the country. Time Tuesday, Mar 16 10:30AM - 11:45AM EDT Speakers Rebecca Williams North Carolina Rate Bureau David Evans Milliman, Inc. PI1: Mining for Gold: Text Analytics in Insurance Liam McGrath, Willis Towers Watson; Yelena Kropivnitskaya, The Wawanesa Mutual Insurance Company show more Description Insurers collect vast quantities of unstructured text data through normal business operations. Claim notes, loss control reports, and customer feedback are a few common examples. Language is messy and text data, in its unstructured form, is of limited use. Natural Language Processing is a quickly-growing subfield of Artificial Intelligence which aims to read, decipher, and understand language in order to gain valuable insights from text data. Actuaries can look to this field for a range of techniques, from simple to highly complex, which unlock this previously underutilized data source. Features derived through text mining add value to predictive models and other analytical efforts. Claims and underwriting are two applications where actuaries and data scientists can support decision making with text analytics. Time Tuesday, Mar 16 10:30AM - 11:45AM EDT Speakers Liam McGrath Willis Towers Watson Yelena Kropivnitskaya The Wawanesa Mutual Insurance Company
12:15pm EDT FS: Avoiding an Extinction Event: Evolution to Artificial Intelligence in the Property & Casualty Insurance Industry Severence MacLaughlin, DeLorean Artificial Intelligence show more Description Severence M. MacLaughlin, Ph.D, Founder and Managing Partner, DeLorean Artificial Intelligence With the evolution of Big Data and a digital awakening across the global market place the new tech buzz word is Artificial Intelligence. It is on the tip of everyone’s tongue, but is there substance behind the marketing machines that have brought to market AI personas such as Watson, Amelia, Holmes & Einstein? Different market sectors have started to evolve in the adoption of Artificial Intelligence at different speeds with financial services in terms of banking and investments as being one of the quickest to invest BUT deriving a low ROI. Why is this? Is it better to be the tortoise or the hare in the AI race? What is the right way to invest in AI as an Insurance carrier? Does it change based on the size of the portfolio insured? How should the actuarial department look to enhance its capabilities and role within the company? Does the company have the leadership capabilities to ensure that the investment drives an ROI and is not a science project? These topics and more will be discussed. Time Tuesday, Mar 16 12:15PM - 1:30PM EDT Speakers Severence MacLaughlin DeLorean Artificial Intelligence
2:30pm EDT RM2: Bayesian Loss Development Methods for Real People David Clark, Munich Re America Services, Inc.; Uri Korn, AIG show more Description This session will compare two strategies for blending loss development patterns. The strategies include curve-fitting and semi-parametric models, but are intended for general practice rather than for a technical audience. The presenters will use live examples to illustrate the methods, with the opportunity for session attendees to follow along with a hands-on example. Time Tuesday, Mar 16 2:30PM - 3:45PM EDT Speakers David Clark Munich Re America Services, Inc. Uri Korn AIG MD2: Data Architecture: Do You Know Where Your Data Comes From? Todd Lehmann, Quincy Mutual Fire Insurance Co.; Meghan Goldfarb, State Farm show more Description Improper assumptions about data can result in models that don’t deliver the intended outcome, or models that aren’t implementable. Understanding your data architecture – or how the data you use for analytics is captured, managed within the system, and transformed – is critical to properly using that data for analytics and predictive models. This interactive session will introduce key data architectural concepts and provide strategies you can use to make the most of your data. Time Tuesday, Mar 16 2:30PM - 3:45PM EDT Speakers Todd Lehmann Quincy Mutual Fire Insurance Co. Meghan Goldfarb State Farm PI2: Everything an Actuary needs to know about the Actuarial Climate Index (ACI) and the Actuarial Climate Risk Index (ACRI) Stephen Kolk, Kolkulations LLC show more Description Steve Kolk will deliver a presentation about the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) and the Actuaries Climate Risk Index (ACRI). This talk will begin showing the why & how these indices were built and then explain what the ACI measures and show how it works. He'll also describe the ACRI. The presentation will conclude with a sketch of the challenges and the next steps presently being worked on. Time Tuesday, Mar 16 2:30PM - 3:45PM EDT Speakers Stephen Kolk Kolkulations LLC RP2: Professionalism - Recorded Skits Melissa Huenefeldt, Lockton Companies; John Wade; William Burns, Western New England University show more Description The CAS Committee on Professionalism Education will present the latest format of material - recorded skits - for discussion! Come prepared to interact with the speakers! Time Tuesday, Mar 16 2:30PM - 3:45PM EDT Speakers Melissa Huenefeldt Lockton Companies John Wade William Burns Western New England University
4:30pm EDT PI3: Innovation Inspired II: From Seattle To The Serengeti In Search Of Lessons In Making Change Kiki Wang, Willis Towers Watson; Craig Thorburn, The World Bank show more Description Can Kenya's insurance challenges learn from Cleveland? Can Melbourne's experience speak to Madagascar? How context can take us from incremental innovation to stepped change? We will showcase examples of how developing countries came up with innovative ideas to solve their unique challenges. From these examples, we will discuss with the audience what lessons we can learn for US insurance carriers’ own challenges. We will also talk about some existing challenges that the developing countries have and have a group discussion on how we can address them. Through this session, we want to show the audience what’s happening around the world and encourage them to think about innovation outside of their comfort zone. Time Tuesday, Mar 16 4:30PM - 5:45PM EDT Speakers Kiki Wang Willis Towers Watson Craig Thorburn The World Bank MD3: NAIC White Paper Overview and Discussion Gennady Stolyarov, State of Nevada Department of Business & Industry; Kris DeFrain, National Association of Insurance Commissioners; Sandra Darby, Maine Bureau of Insurance; Eric Hintikka, Texas Department of Insurance show more Description The NAIC Casualty Actuarial and Statistical Task Force (CASTF) recently released a white paper on “Regulatory Review of Predictive Models”.  This session will present an overview of the white paper along with a discussion of its most important elements. In addition, this session will conclude with a Q&A section with authors of the white paper to allow back-and-forth between presenters and audience. Time Tuesday, Mar 16 4:30PM - 5:45PM EDT Speakers Gennady Stolyarov State of Nevada Department of Business & Industry Kris DeFrain National Association of Insurance Commissioners Sandra Darby Maine Bureau of Insurance Eric Hintikka Texas Department of Insurance RM3: The Fully Automated Ratemaking Process Drew Lawyer, Earnix, Ltd.; Julia Hart, COUNTRY Financial DigitaLab show more Description In this session we will take a look at what is needed for a fully automated rate making process. This futuristic view will take us through data management, statistical modeling, rate filing, rate deployment, and performance monitoring. Using advanced scripting language in conjunction with machine learning and other modern statistical techniques, this vision may become a reality within our careers. Time Tuesday, Mar 16 4:30PM - 5:45PM EDT Speakers Drew Lawyer Earnix, Ltd. Julia Hart COUNTRY Financial DigitaLab RP3: Wildfire Perspectives Howard Kunst, CoreLogic; David Dahl, Oregon Division of Financial Regulation; Eric Xu, Milliman, Inc. show more Description Wildfires have become increasingly devastating in recent years, resulting in significant losses and increasing challenges for insurers. In this session, we will provide an overview of current issues relating to wildfire, and learn how regulators and insurance companies are responding to the increasing threat of wildfire. We will also discuss catastrophe models, and how these models are applicable to wildfire. Time Tuesday, Mar 16 4:30PM - 5:45PM EDT Speakers Howard Kunst CoreLogic David Dahl Oregon Division of Financial Regulation Eric Xu Milliman, Inc.
5:50pm EDT RT3: Roundtable - Industry Perspectives on Race and Insurance Kris DeFrain, National Association of Insurance Commissioners; Mallika Bender; Lauren Cavanaugh, FTI Consulting show more Description Social unrest beginning in the summer of 2020 has once again brought allegations of racial bias in insurance practices to the forefront in the industry. The NAIC Special (Ex) Committee on Race and Insurance, Workstream Three, focuses on property & casualty insurance practices, as well as affordability and availability concerns. This highlights the need for CAS actuaries to have an understanding of the relevant issues and how they intersect with our work. Participants will hear a brief overview of the NAIC discussions to-date, get a perspective on relevant standards of practice and areas of opportunity from the American Academy of Actuaries, and participate in small group discussion on topics such as: • The actuary's professional responsibility when considering implicit racial bias in their work • Actions individual actuaries or companies could take to move the discussion forward • Research and other information required to address the issue of racial bias in insurance practice Time Tuesday, Mar 16 5:50PM - 6:40PM EDT Speakers Kris DeFrain National Association of Insurance Commissioners Mallika Bender Lauren Cavanaugh FTI Consulting RT4: Roundtable - What Did 2020 Teach Us About Natural Catastrophes? Howard Kunst, CoreLogic show more Description 2020 was an eventful year for catastrophes before one even considers the large matter of COVID-19. Between California's worst wildfire season, a record-breaking hurricane season that largely bypassed Florida, continued debate regarding the reasonability of FEMA's flood maps, and the suspected hack of the US government, catastrophes were all over the news. In this CE-eligible interactive roundtable, attendees can discuss what the industry learned from 2020, what to potentially expect in 2021, as well as how changes in modes of working may impact settlement of catastrophe claims in the future. Time Tuesday, Mar 16 5:50PM - 6:40PM EDT Speakers Howard Kunst CoreLogic
Wednesday, March 17
9:30am EDT RT5: Roundtable - 2020 Election Predictions – What Do We Make of Them? Ralph Dweck, ISO/Verisk show more Description The election prediction markets have become a hot button issue, especially since 2016. Polls have faced added scrutiny ever since. The 2020 elections brought mixed results for prediction markets. The actuarial community may offer unique perspective on these issues given their resemblance to our own work. Let’s come together to explore the similarities. Time Wednesday, Mar 17 9:30AM - 10:20AM EDT Speakers Ralph Dweck ISO/Verisk RT6: Roundtable - InsurTech Dominic Dillingham, Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting show more Description This roundtable discussion will focus on the InsurTech industry, an industry continuing to experience rapid growth in funding, digital transformation, and consumer awareness. Our discussion will focus on the current state of the InsurTech industry and where the industry will go next with a focus on changes to the traditional pricing model, new tech, and the overall customer experience. Time Wednesday, Mar 17 9:30AM - 10:20AM EDT Speakers Dominic Dillingham Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting
10:30am EDT PI4: COVID-19 Impact on Auto Ratemaking Ralph Dweck, ISO/Verisk; Ut Fong, Lyft show more Description With both immediate consequences and longer lasting effects anticipated, COVID-19 presents challenges for Personal and Commercial Auto ratemaking. This session will examine these circumstances of the response to the pandemic. Among the topics that will be discussed: What are the implicit effects on exposure to risk? How does the risk process evolve in light of behavioral and economic shifts? And what methodological changes might we consider to reflect these developments? Time Wednesday, Mar 17 10:30AM - 11:45AM EDT Speakers Ralph Dweck ISO/Verisk Ut Fong Lyft MD4: Emerging “Bayesian” Techniques in Application Gary Venter; Navarun Jain, Lux Actuaries & Consultants show more Description Fitting smoothing splines instead of parametric curves across variables can give closer fits and still not use many degrees of freedom. This is done easily and efficiently by the MCMC algorithm, often termed “Bayesian.” Machine learning is now being applied actuarially, and Bayesian methods have advantages there as well. In this presentation, the speakers will introduce how to take this approach to smoothing splines and machine learning and highlight its advantages. Time Wednesday, Mar 17 10:30AM - 11:45AM EDT Speakers Gary Venter Navarun Jain Lux Actuaries & Consultants RM4: Impacts Across the Firm: Commercial Lines Pricing Systems Dustin Duncan, RPC Tyche; Steven Walsh, PricewaterhouseCoopers; Kevin Madigan, Genuine Risk Advisors LLC and Gross Consulting Inc. show more Description Transactional pricing actuaries and underwriters often use pricing systems to collaborate on the pricing and underwriting of large accounts. The modeling and assumption setting that goes into this process, while immensely valuable for other processes across the firm, is often lost and buried in Excel spreadsheets after policy issuance. We will discuss best practices in pricing system design including the need for strong data capture, and how firms can leverage the data collected during the large account underwriting lifecycle to improve other processes across the firm. Areas of focus will include risk management, capital modeling and management, reinsurance purchasing, reserving, portfolio optimization, price monitoring, improving pricing and catastrophe accumulation management. Time Wednesday, Mar 17 10:30AM - 11:45AM EDT Speakers Dustin Duncan RPC Tyche Steven Walsh PricewaterhouseCoopers Kevin Madigan Genuine Risk Advisors LLC and Gross Consulting Inc. RP4: Professionalism, Uh, Finds a Way Rick Sutherland, Travelers; Shawn Balthazar, Willis Towers Watson; Dereck Tanaka, Travelers; Helen Zhao, Willis Towers Watson show more Description An actuary, a paleontologist, and a chaotician walk into a park… Join us as we explore how the Actuarial Standards of Practice and Code of Professional Conduct would apply to pricing and predictive modeling at a prehistoric theme park. As we discuss several unique scenarios, you‘ll help us solve ethical challenges via online chat, polling, and Q&A. A session 65 million years in the making. Time Wednesday, Mar 17 10:30AM - 11:45AM EDT Speakers Rick Sutherland Travelers Shawn Balthazar Willis Towers Watson Dereck Tanaka Travelers Helen Zhao Willis Towers Watson
12:15pm EDT GS: Pandemics, Politics and P/C Insurance: The Indelible Legacy of COVID-19 Robert Hartwig, Darla Moore School of Business - University of South Carolina show more Description The presentation will provide a comprehensive overview of the impacts of COVID-19 on the p/c insurance industry. The pandemic’s impacts affected every segment of the industry and the environment in which it operates. Areas of focus will include impacts on profitability, underwriting, pricing, growth and investment income. Other influences including the economy, the regulatory environment, legislation and tort issues will also be addressed. Time Wednesday, Mar 17 12:15PM - 1:30PM EDT Speakers Robert Hartwig Darla Moore School of Business - University of South Carolina
2:30pm EDT RP5: ASOP 53 Trivia – and more! John Gleba, Madison Consulting Group; Stephen Merkey, United Fire Group show more Description The Committee on Professionalism will present another round of Kahoot Trivia- this time, starting with ASOP 53! Learn professionalism, share what you know, and show off to your friends! This will qualify for CE on Professionalism. Time Wednesday, Mar 17 2:30PM - 3:45PM EDT Speakers John Gleba Madison Consulting Group Stephen Merkey United Fire Group PI5: How to Build a Robust Decision-Making Framework for Personal Lines Kiki Wang, Willis Towers Watson; Jeffery Hay, Donegal Insurance Group show more Description As personal lines carriers become more and more sophisticated in analytics, it is important to have a framework in place to understand what the models are telling you, how your underwriting strategies and pricing decisions are affecting your underlying metrics, and most importantly, how different teams - actuaries, data scientists, product managers, underwriters, etc. should work together to create a compelling product. Time Wednesday, Mar 17 2:30PM - 3:45PM EDT Speakers Kiki Wang Willis Towers Watson Jeffery Hay Donegal Insurance Group RM5: Insurtechs and the Future of Pricing Data Brett Nunes, Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting; David Tobias, Betterview; Derek Winkler, Carpe Data show more Description For this session we will discuss with a panel of insurtech companies the non-traditional data they collect. We will focus on how this data is currently being used and how it can be used to improve pricing and underwriting across several lines of business. Time Wednesday, Mar 17 2:30PM - 3:45PM EDT Speakers Brett Nunes Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting David Tobias Betterview Derek Winkler Carpe Data MD5: Machine Learning (ML) Working Party: Practical Methods and Key Issues Navarun Jain, Lux Actuaries & Consultants; Marco De Virgilis, Allstate Insurance Company; Liam McGrath, Willis Towers Watson; Nathaniel Loughin, KPMG, LLP show more Description The Machine Learning Working Party was formed by the CAS in 2018 to address emerging issues associated with the use of machine learning (ML) techniques in actuarial practice. As part of this effort, the working party has focused on three major areas: 1. Worked examples of ML models 2. Regulatory requirements for communication of ML models (which are often seen as “black boxes”) 3. Survey of ML methods currently in use in the industry This panel focuses on machine learning applications to estimation of pure premiums in automobile liability. Discussion will be centered around an example ML model with comparisons to “traditional” GLMs and Bayesian approaches. We will describe the workings of this model, regulatory considerations in communication, and provide context for other ML models used in the same contexts. Time Wednesday, Mar 17 2:30PM - 3:45PM EDT Speakers Navarun Jain Lux Actuaries & Consultants Marco De Virgilis Allstate Insurance Company Liam McGrath Willis Towers Watson Nathaniel Loughin KPMG, LLP
4:30pm EDT MD6: A Primer on Algorithmic Fairness in Insurance James Guszcza, Deloitte Consulting, LLP; Daniel Bauer, University of Wisconsin - Madison; Rayid Ghani, Carnegie Mellon University show more Description Considerations of actuarial and societal fairness have always been part and parcel of actuarial work.  As algorithmic decision-making spreads through ever more areas of business and society, algorithmic fairness has blossomed into a vibrant area of research.  This session will set the stage by briefly discussing high-level concepts relevant to AI ethics, and then will turn to a discussion of discussion of different concepts of algorithmic fairness, tradeoffs among them, and how they apply in insurance settings. Time Wednesday, Mar 17 4:30PM - 5:45PM EDT Speakers James Guszcza Deloitte Consulting, LLP Daniel Bauer University of Wisconsin - Madison Rayid Ghani Carnegie Mellon University PI6: Are MGAs the Future of Underwriting? Lon Chang, Ascot Group; Denise Olson, Zurich North America show more Description This session will provide two actuarial perspectives on what MGAs are, how they work, and what the MGA space looks like in the United States. It will explore some situations where a carrier may consider delegating authority and the typesof risk typically involved. Case studies of product innovation in alternative markets, oriented towards addressing the needs of the underserved, will be covered. Operational considerations related to MGAs, including compliance and technology, will also be discussed. The session will be useful to anyone interested in tapping into alternative markets, or simply learning how approaches used in alternative markets can apply in traditional ones. Time Wednesday, Mar 17 4:30PM - 5:45PM EDT Speakers Lon Chang Ascot Group Denise Olson Zurich North America RM6: COVID-19 in Workers Compensation—The View Forward David Bellusci, W.C. Insurance Rating Bureau of California; Rick Poulin, Travelers; Neal Leibowitz, Liberty Mutual Insurance show more Description A panel of workers compensation experts will discuss the latest analytics available on the impact of the pandemic on workers compensation systems with a view to how emerging trends may affect future costs. The panel will discuss topics such as emerging COVID claim severity, COVID claim costs in reserve and rate projections, the effects of a vaccine, long-term medical issues of COVID patients, delays in medical treatment, legal presumptions, employers liability, and the impacts of the economic slowdown. Time Wednesday, Mar 17 4:30PM - 5:45PM EDT Speakers David Bellusci W.C. Insurance Rating Bureau of California Rick Poulin Travelers Neal Leibowitz Liberty Mutual Insurance RM7: Ratemaking with Telematics Data Victoria Marciano, Sompo International; Roxane Turcotte, Université du Québec à Montréal; Francis Duval, Université du Québec à Montréal show more Description In Pay-As-You-Drive(PAYD) automobile insurance, the premium is fixed based on the distance traveled, while in usage-based insurance (UBI) the driving patterns of the policyholder are also considered. In those schemes, drivers who drive more pay a higher premium compared to those with the same characteristics who drive only occasionally, because the former are more exposed to the risk of accident. First of all, we analyze the simultaneous effect of the distance traveled and exposure time on the risk of accident. Semi-parametric models, using Generalized Additive Models (GAM) or Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) will also be applied using real insurance data. We show how the expected number of claims stabilizes once a certain number of accumulated distance-driven is reached, and propose some explanations to understand this phenomena. Second, we show that the driving experience of policyholders monitored via a mobile application or a device installed in the vehicle stabilizes after a certain time. More specifically, we place ourselves in the claim classification framework and using supervised learning algorithms, we show that after about 3 months, the additional driving data collected does not provide much benefit, at least for claim classification. Time Wednesday, Mar 17 4:30PM - 5:45PM EDT Speakers Victoria Marciano Sompo International Roxane Turcotte Université du Québec à Montréal Francis Duval Université du Québec à Montréal
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